Five days ago I shared my thoughts on GBP/USD and laid out two scenarios. Today one of them played out — but not the one I was hoping for.
I was leaning bearish. The market had other ideas. Read the previous GBP/USD Analysis — Saturday, 11 July 2026 post first if you want the full picture of what I was watching.
What Happened
In the original post, price was sitting near the 4-hour resistance zone. Below the daily support there is a liquidity zone — the blue zone on the chart. Because that liquidity sits below the support, I was hoping price would get rejected from the 4-hour resistance and move down toward it.
That is not what happened.
The strong bullish momentum showed that buyers were willing to absorb the sell orders sitting inside the resistance zone. Instead of rejecting, price accepted above the area — which makes the bearish scenario much less likely for now.
What This Changes
I do not want to go long simply because price broke the resistance. A breakout alone is not a signal. But the possibility of price moving further up has increased, and here is why.
When a resistance zone is broken with momentum and price returns to retest it, that zone often flips — it becomes support. This is called a flip zone. If price retraces back to the broken 4-hour resistance and my rules are met on the lower timeframe, I might consider a long from there.
As always — price does not have to go from one zone to the next. It can go sideways. It can reverse. Jumping into a trade just because a zone broke is not how I trade.
What would make me bearish again: If price falls back below the broken resistance and closes underneath it, this breakout may prove to be a false one. In that case the bearish idea comes back into play and the daily liquidity zone below becomes the target again.
One Thing Worth Keeping in Mind
The 4-hour resistance zone is clearly visible on the chart. If I can see it, so can every other trader watching GBP/USD. Every obvious support or resistance attracts pending orders, stop losses, and breakout traders. That is why these areas naturally become liquidity pools — not just the equal highs and equal lows I usually draw, but any level where a large number of traders are positioned.
Price broke the zone with strong momentum. But we should not ignore the possibility that price now sweeps all those orders sitting around the zone before deciding its next real direction. That kind of sweep could push price back down toward the daily liquidity zone below the support.
Until that picture becomes clearer, I am watching — not trading.
Bye for now, take care.
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