This is the kind of trade I want another 500 times.
Every variable meets my conditions. Every rule is followed. Every zone is clean and every move is sharp. These are the setups I have the most confidence in so far — although my sample size is still too small to draw firm conclusions. You can follow your setup, follow your rules, and still lose the trade. That is just part of it. I do not believe in a 100% win rate — and anyone selling you one is selling you something else entirely.
With that said, let's look at the trade. Below is the 1-hour chart of EUR/USD.
The 1-Hour Setup
After the Higher Timeframe BOS, price made two clear FVGs. This can get confusing — when there are two FVGs, which one do you trade from?
The answer is straightforward: trade from the FVG that produced the BOS. That is the one with the momentum behind it. The BOS tells me where the institutional momentum came from — that is why I care about that FVG more than any other. It does not matter whether there are two FVGs or one — always go back to the FVG that gave you the break. Once that setup is confirmed on the 1-hour chart, you drop to the lower timeframe. In this case, from 1H down to 15 minutes.
The 15-Minute Entry
On the 15-minute chart, price retraced back into the 1-hour FVG not once, not twice, but three times. Each retracement made almost equal highs, which created a clear liquidation zone — the blue zone visible in the image just above the FVG. None of those three retracements gave a BOS. Instead they built the liquidity that the fourth move would eventually sweep.
The fourth time, price swept that liquidity and immediately created a BOS in the same direction as the higher timeframe bias. That was my entry signal.
Risk-to-Reward: 2. Stop loss placed above the liquidation zone.
What This Setup Has Taught Me
This setup has given me good results so far. But I want to be honest — the data I have is still too small to prove anything conclusively. This is the setup I want to trade more, and I am building that sample size one trade at a time.
It is not a 100% guarantee. Nothing is.
And if I am being completely honest, I have wasted more time searching for a 100% win rate strategy than actually working on making a good one better. That search is over. This is the setup. Now it is just about execution and data.
Every trade like this adds another page to the journal. One trade proves nothing. Hundreds of them might.
Bye for now — take care.
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