Bitcoin is approaching one of the most important weekly support zones on my chart. Whether price reaches it or reverses before it does will likely determine my next trade.
Before anything else — this is my own opinion, not a guaranteed outcome. I am using the weekly and daily charts. My current bias remains bearish, but I am watching for a temporary retracement before any further move lower.
Today is Friday, 3 July 2026. For several weeks now, BTC has been in a downtrend and is now approaching a strong support zone around $52,000 to $53,000. The price has not yet fully entered that zone. The higher timeframe is currently making new Lower Lows and Lower Highs — so the downtrend is still intact.
I am not going to draw trend lines or mark every swing point. I will simply draw zones and let the chart speak for itself.
The Weekly Chart
Anyone can clearly see the downtrend from this chart. The support zone around $50,000 to $53,000 acted as a major demand area during the previous bull market, which is why I expect buyers to become active there if price reaches it. That history is what makes it significant — not just the price level itself.
From here I see three possible scenarios.
Bearish continuation — Price continues to drop and taps into the weekly support zone. I believe this zone will not break easily, but that does not make it impossible.
Pullback then continuation — Price begins retracing before reaching the weekly support. In this case I will be watching the daily FVG and Order Block for reaction. If price respects either of those zones and shows weakness, the downtrend likely continues.
Bullish reversal — Price pushes up through the daily resistance. This is the scenario I am least expecting, but it is still on the table.
One important thing to remember: just because price is moving near a support zone does not mean it will always tap the zone and react to it. Price can reverse from anywhere. The zones we draw are indications — not confirmations.
The Daily Chart
On the daily chart I have drawn 3 major zones — a 1-day FVG, a 1-day OB, and a daily resistance level.
If price begins retracing before reaching the weekly support, I will be watching the daily FVG and Order Block closely. There is no BOS on the daily timeframe yet, but the momentum into these zones is clean, which is why I believe price may respect them.
If price pushes past both the FVG and OB, the daily resistance becomes the next area of interest. It is not as strong as the weekly support, but it is still significant enough that price may reject from there.
I will not look for any long positions unless I see a strong BOS from the resistance zone with good momentum. Trading against the higher timeframe trend has historically given me worse results, so I would rather miss a move than force one.
The rule I follow is simple: I do not take trades when price is in between zones. Most of my losing trades happen when I chase price between levels, so I only become interested when price reaches an area that could actually change market behaviour. I wait for price to reach a zone, show me a reaction, and then make a decision.
Good trading is not about predicting where price will go. It is about knowing where you will make your decision.
Bye for now, take care.
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