The market is closed, but Monday's trades are already being planned. By the time the opening bell rings, I want to know exactly what I am looking for — and more importantly, what would make me walk away from a setup entirely.
Gold has been moving down for months and has now given us a small reaction. But if we look at the weekly chart, we still cannot say that Gold is officially in a downtrend. On lower timeframes it is — but not on the weekly.
The weekly chart carries far more weight than the lower timeframes. Until it confirms a downtrend, I have to respect the possibility of a larger reversal.
I am not trying to predict where Gold will go. I am simply preparing for the outcomes that have the highest probability.
The Weekly Chart
A proper weekly downtrend requires price to close below the weekly support with a confirmed BOS. That has not happened yet — which means there is still a genuine chance that buyers step in and push price higher from this area.
Scenario 1 — Bullish reversal: Buyers defend the weekly support and price reverses higher.
Scenario 2 — Bearish continuation: The weekly support fails and a confirmed downtrend forms.
Both are valid. The weekly chart alone cannot tell me which one. Let us go deeper.
The Daily Chart
Price has been rejected from the weekly support and is moving upwards — but it is nowhere near the daily resistance yet. Although price has reacted from support, buyers have not yet shown enough strength to shift the higher timeframe structure. A reaction is not the same as a reversal.
Buying from the weekly support may seem attractive here. But I would rather wait than fight the possibility of a liquidity sweep below. Let me explain why.
The 4-Hour Chart — The Problem with Going Long
Every rejection from the weekly support on the 4-hour chart has created equal lows. Equal lows often attract liquidity because stop losses accumulate beneath them — and price has a tendency to sweep those clusters before making a sustained move. It is not guaranteed, but it is too significant to ignore.
I would rather look for a trade toward that liquidity than against it. This is why I am not opening a long position despite the weekly support looking strong.
The 1-Hour Chart — Where the Decision Gets Made
On the 1-hour chart there are two major resistance zones. Price has already entered the first resistance area, meaning the market is approaching a location where sellers may become active.
My plan for Monday:
If price shows rejection from either of the 1-hour resistance zones and confirms a BOS to the downside — I will look for a short trade toward the 4-hour liquidity zone. The BOS confirms that sellers have actually regained control rather than simply reacting from resistance. Without that confirmation, I wait.
I am not looking for longs until price breaks one of these resistance zones with strong momentum, a clear upward BOS, and an FVG to enter from.
Invalidation: If price breaks above Resistance Zone 2 with strong momentum and confirms a bullish BOS, I will abandon the short idea entirely and reassess from scratch. One more thing — after a liquidity sweep, price does not always reverse. It can also continue lower. That is exactly why the BOS after the sweep is non-negotiable.
Markets owe us nothing. Every scenario above can fail, which is why confirmation always comes before execution.
Monday does not reward opinions. It rewards patience.
Bye for now, take care.
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